Bulls Guard the Gap as Nifty Eyes 26,000; Volatility Spikes

Nifty Outlook

Spot: 25,713.00

FII: ₹3,483.70 crore (Net Buy)

DII: ₹1,292.24 crore (Net Sell)

As anticipated in yesterday’s discussion, market behaviour unfolded largely on expected lines. Nifty respected the bullish opening gap formed on 3rd February 2026 and extended its rally to an intraday high of 25,771.45.

On the daily chart, Nifty formed a bullish spinning-top type candle, indicating volatility and indecision regarding the immediate directional move. However, as long as the index continues to hold near-term momentum, the overall bias remains positive.

Upside Scenario

• A decisive breakout above 25,785 could trigger further upside toward 25,857 – 25,930.
• If buying interest strengthens further, the index may test the psychological level of 26,005.

Downside Scenario

• A decisive breakdown below 25,641 may drag Nifty toward 25,570 – 25,495.
• If selling pressure intensifies, the next support zone lies near 25,425.

 

Bank Nifty Outlook

Spot: 61,264.25
PCR: 0.92
Maximum CE Open Interest: 63,000
Maximum PE Open Interest: 60,000

On 23rd February 2026, Bank Nifty closed at 61,264.25, gaining 92.25 points (0.15%). The index witnessed a total intraday movement of 488.65 points, touching a high of 61,517.80 and a low of 61,029.15.

Technical View

• Key support: 60,650
• Key resistance: 61,700

Intraday levels:

• Support: 61,130
• Resistance: 61,399

The RSI for Bank Nifty stands at 59.6, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum (below 30 is oversold; above 70 is overbought).

Moving Average Analysis

• Bank Nifty is trading above all 8 major daily SMAs (5, 10, 20, 30, 50, 100, 150, 200 Day).
• It is trading below none of the tracked SMAs.
• No significant candlestick pattern was observed on the daily chart.

The overall structure remains technically strong, though momentum is moderating.

 

Macro Snapshot

1. Dollar Index: 97.775 (+0.12%)
2. India VIX: 21.01 (+10.06%)
3. Brent Crude: $71.07
4. US 10-Year Bond Yield: 4.042%

 

Global Developments

In a notable development in the United States, a group of 22 Senate Democrats introduced legislation requiring the Trump administration to fully refund—within 180 days and with interest—all tariff revenue that was struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court.

The proposed legislation would direct Customs and Border Protection to prioritise refunds to small businesses. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the administration would follow lower court determinations, noting that the refund process may take several weeks or even months.

On the commodities front, bullion continues to trade at elevated levels amid Iran-related tensions and fresh U.S. tariff developments. Equity markets appear cautious, and near-term sentiment is expected to remain negative to sideways.

 

Important Pivot Levels For Today

NIFTY

S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
25,462.32	25,535.83	25,624.42	25,697.93	25,786.52	25,860.03	25,948.62

BANK NIFTY

S3	S2	S1	Pivot	R1	R2	R3
60,534.35	60,781.75	61,023.00	61,270.40	61,511.65	61,759.05	62,000.30

 

Overall View

While Nifty continues to show short-term bullish resilience, the sharp rise in India VIX signals elevated volatility. Global uncertainty, tariff-related developments, and crude oil movements remain key variables. Traders should remain cautious, respect stop-loss levels, and avoid aggressive leverage in the current environment.