US-Iran ceasefire talks fail — April 12, 2026
JD Vance left Islamabad without a deal. Iran declined to assure it would not pursue nuclear weapons. Markets brace for a turbulent Monday open.
What happened
US and Iran delegations met in Islamabad on April 11 under Pakistani mediation — the highest-level direct talks since 1979.
Talks collapsed after Iran refused to commit to not pursuing nuclear weapons. Vance called the US proposal the "final and best offer."
The fragile two-week ceasefire (announced April 8) is now under serious threat. Trump has hinted at a full naval blockade on Iran.
The Strait of Hormuz — through which ~20% of global oil flows — remains restricted.
Crude oil
Bearish riskSharp gap-up opening expected
WTI at ceasefire low
$94.41
Pre-war level (Feb 27)
$67
Peak during war
$112+
Risk premium in energy markets likely to surge on Monday as talks collapse.
12–15 million barrels per day remain choked off — the biggest oil supply shock on record.
Goldman Sachs had forecast Brent at $90/bbl on ceasefire hopes — that target is now under review.
Gold
Mixed signalsFlat to mildly negative open expected
Current spot price
~$4,700
Pre-war high
$5,423
War-low
$4,384
Profit booking and monetary tightening fears may pressure gold short-term.
Inflation fears from high oil suppress gold's safe-haven appeal by raising rate expectations.
Weak US macro data (soft CPI, slowing GDP) provides a floor — limiting sharp downside.
"If the conflict continues, prices could dip below $4,000, while a ceasefire and renewed rate-cut hopes could lift them back toward $5,000."— Jim Wyckoff, Kitco Metals
Technical range (gold)$4,650 – $4,800
JP Morgan year-end target$6,300
Deutsche Bank year-end target$6,000
Silver
Volatile"Turbo-gold" — amplifies every move
Ceasefire rally high
$77
Post-ceasefire dip
$67.71
Technical range
$72–$78
Silver down over 1% year-to-date; will mirror gold's direction but with larger swings.
Near-term resistance at $79.50–$80.00; support at $72.
Weak macro environment provides a base; significant upside if a permanent deal emerges.
Indian stock market
Under pressureCautious flat to mildly negative Monday
Sensex (Apr 9 close)
76,631
Nifty (Apr 9 close)
23,775
FII selling in Apr so far
₹37,933 Cr
Markets remain "hostage to headlines" — relief rallies tend to reverse on fresh geopolitical stress.
FII selling continues aggressively; India seen as geopolitically exposed to energy shocks.
Rupee remains vulnerable, eating into FPI returns and discouraging fresh inflows.
RBI projects 6.9% GDP growth and 11.5% nominal growth for FY27 — fundamentals intact.
"For losses to be pared sustainably: full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, crude stabilising in the $75–$85 range, and a complete cessation of hostilities are all needed."— Seema Srivastava, SMC Global Securities
Sectors to watch
At risk
Banks · Financials · OMCs · Aviation
Resilient / upside
Defence · Rate-sensitive · Consumption
The bottom line
Oil risk premium returns — expect a sharp gap-up open in crude on Monday.
Gold and silver open flat to mildly negative; central bank tightening fears cap near-term upside.
Indian markets likely to open cautiously negative; Nifty and Sensex vulnerable to further FII selling.
A durable deal — not just a ceasefire extension — is the only catalyst for a sustained recovery across all these assets.
. For educational purposes only — not investment advice.
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